February 2026 Issue
Introducing the W.A.R. Trends System:
How We Identify Winners Before Wall Street Catches On
By Bryan Bottarelli and Karim Rahemtulla
Welcome to the first issue of Monument Trend Advisory!
This service identifies the most powerful trends driving the markets and positions you to profit using strategies typically reserved for Wall Street's elite.
Between us, Karim and I have been doing this for decades. Since we teamed up to form Monument Traders Alliance in 2019, we've delivered a verified 73% to 76% success rate across multiple market cycles – including the 2020 COVID crash, the 2022 bear market, the 2024 election volatility, and the brutal 2025 tariff-driven corrections.
Through it all, we've handed our members over 3,200 winning trade recommendations across seven battle-tested years. We're confident we can continue delivering winners in any environment – and that's exactly what we plan to do here.
How This Report Works
Each month, you'll receive a "Field Report" containing our No. 1 W.A.R. Trend plus actionable recommendations within that trend. Then on Tuesdays at 2 p.m. ET, join us live for a "Weekly Intelligence Briefing" where we'll discuss updates on everything covered in the report.
The goal: Bigger Winners With Less Work.
Our Track Record Speaks for Itself
Some of our top picks have been life-changers for our loyal members…
Rolls-Royce Holdings
+1,400%
Karim's "unicorn stock" that helped members become millionaires during the COVID panic
Seabridge Gold
+200%
RTX
+88.5%
A safe-haven defense/aerospace play that beat the market by 54%
Franco-Nevada, Roblox, Generac
+50%
All delivering market-beating returns

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We were also early on major themes: cold storage (VRT in early 2024), quantum computing (QBTS), and voice-to-sound technology (SOUN).
How do we consistently deliver such powerful winners? As we looked back over seven years of picks, research, and recommendations, we learned that the very best winners came from one simple methodology...
The W.A.R. Trends System
This method is based on three critical criteria…
Winning Fundamentals
Accelerated Technicals
Recent / Upcoming Catalysts
We aim to find opportunities that meet at least two of these three criteria. When all three align, that's when we see our biggest winners.
Winning Fundamentals means we target companies with durable competitive advantages – irreplaceable assets, high switching costs, recurring revenue models, and management with skin in the game.
When Karim identified Rolls-Royce during the COVID crash, the stock had fallen 90%. But only three companies in the world can build engines for wide-body aircraft, and Rolls-Royce earns recurring revenue through long-term service contracts. The business was temporarily impaired, not permanently broken.
That distinction is everything.
Accelerated Technicals means we're buying at the right time, not just buying the right companies. Bryan's 20 years on the CBOE floor taught him that even the best thesis can blow up your account with poor timing.
We look for repeatable patterns: gap-down reversals, sector rotation signals, volume confirmation, and oversold conditions that typically snap back.
Our backtesting on "Gift Gap" setups shows a 97% win rate on 25% gap fills, with 80% of winners hitting that target within two days.
Recent / Upcoming Catalysts means we need a specific reason for the market to reprice the stock in our favor –earnings, insider buying, regulatory decisions, seasonal patterns, or policy shifts. The key is identifying them before they become obvious.
When we positioned in RTX, multiple catalysts were converging: real-time Patriot validation in Ukraine, bipartisan defense budgets, and AI-driven military modernization.

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This Month's W.A.R. Trend
How to Navigate Midterm Year Risk With the Market's Most Attractively Valued Sector Right Now
By Bryan Bottarelli, Head Trade Tactician
The S&P 500 gained 16% in 2025, driven primarily by the three-year AI/tech stock rally.
But cracks are starting to show.
Only Nvidia and Google outperformed their benchmark indexes last year. As we enter 2026, even the smallest disappointments could unravel the upside trajectory of the AI rally.
Keep in mind… We've now entered a midterm presidential cycle – which has historically carried more risk.
Midterm election years have been the worst of any presidential cycle. The S&P 500 finishes higher only 53% of the time in midterm years, with an average gain of just 4.6% (compared to a 78% win rate and +11% average in other years).
Combine AI trade troubles with midterm cycle risk, and it's the perfect time to adopt a more conservative approach.
The financial media has covered what it's calling a "Sell America" theme.
Given geopolitical tensions from the Greenland situation, "risk on" money is flowing out of high-beta technology – and it needs a new home.
And the most attractively valued home right now is the Biotech/Healthcare sector.
I'd like to move into an all-encompassing play in the biotech sector to serve as a safe haven – and I've landed on the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB).
IBB gives you exposure to a basket of some of the best biotech names in the world – offering broad-based exposure to this entire sector in one simple-to-buy ETF.

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Top 10 Holdings - iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB)
Looking at IBB's total return dating back to 2021, you'll see it has been a laggard. However, it had a strong turnaround year in 2025 with a return close to 28%. The tide is turning – traders and investors are recognizing that this sector represents one of the best value propositions around.

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When it comes to accelerating technicals, this is precisely what I want to see – so let's catch it early in the cycle.
From a chart perspective, the $165 level has acted as support going back to December. Let's make our move now.

RECOMMENDATION: Buy shares of iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) for the best prices available, good for the week. We'll target a price of $200 within six to 12 months.
Bonus Pick: Leveraging 3x the Returns of Biotech in One Ticker
By Bryan Bottarelli
If you want to leverage the returns in the biotech sector, consider a small, speculative position in the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU).
This unique asset moves at 3X the daily move of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index, offering amplified upside as the index moves up.

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LABU has doubled over the past year – and since FDA drug approvals often trigger 20% to 50% single-day stock jumps, LABU is designed to leverage those returns across multiple stocks in its basket.
LABU's top holding is Moderna (not a top holding in IBB), which has recently surged on positive drug development news.
I've designated this as a "speculative" position because triple-leveraged ETFs aren't for everyone. 3X leverage works both ways – down-days result in a 3X move lower.
But if you want to amplify your exposure to this sector, this play checks all the boxes.

SPECULATIVE RECOMMENDATION: Buy the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU) for the best prices available, good for the week.

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This Deep Value Biotech Play Could Triple as Big Pharma Scrambles to Replace $236 Billion in Expiring Patents
By Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician
Deep value in biotech? Yes, it can be found… and I'm going to share the company with you today. But first, let me explain the trend that's just emerging. It's not too late to jump in if you know where to look.
There's a pattern I've learned to recognize over the years. It starts with whispers. Quiet accumulation. Money moving before the crowd notices.
Back in 2022, I started telling my readers to get into gold and precious metals. Central banks around the world were buying bullion. The U.S. was piling on debt. Those two factors alone were enough to ignite more buying ahead. Fast-forward to 2026... I nailed it. Gold topped $5,000 an ounce, silver hit $100 an ounce - validating those early signals.
Now I'm telling you to buy stocks in the biotech sector. Here's why...
The Patent Cliff Is Our Recent/Upcoming Catalyst
Big pharma is sitting on a patent cliff that's about to become a revenue catastrophe. Between 2026 and 2030, the sector faces a "super-cliff" with $180 billion to $236 billion in annual revenue at risk from patent expirations.
I'm talking about blockbusters like Merck's Keytruda ($25 billion in annual sales), expiring in 2028... Pfizer's Ibrance ($6.4 billion), going off patent in 2027... and dozens more.
They have to replace that revenue - and fast. That urgency is driving an M&A explosion.
Biotech M&A exploded 73% to $228 billion in 2025 - and analysts predict more than 20 deals over $1 billion each in 2026.
Just look at what happened with obesity drugmaker Metsera last year. When Pfizer and Novo Nordisk got into a bidding war, Metsera's shares doubled as the price escalated from $4.9 billion to Pfizer's winning $10 billion offer. Or take Revolution Medicines (RVMD), which jumped 29% on Merck takeover rumors, pushing its market cap near $20 billion.
These aren't small moves. This is a sector where triple-digit gains are the norm during takeovers.

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The $550 Million Revenue Story Wall Street Hasn't Discovered Yet
Ardelyx (ARDX) is a name you've probably never heard of. You should pull it up right now and do some due diligence.
I've followed this company for years – from a fledgling biotech to where it is today with drugs on the market and more in trials.
Ardelyx specializes in kidney disease and IBS – two large markets – with two key drugs…
  • IBSRELA: A prescription medicine for adults to treat irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C). It works differently from other IBS-C medications by keeping water in the gut, restoring gut barrier function, and lessening pain-sensing nerve activity.
  • XPHOZAH: A prescription medicine to reduce serum phosphorus in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on dialysis, as add-on therapy when phosphate binders don't work well enough.The Numbers Tell the Story
On January 8, 2026, Ardelyx announced 2026 revenue guidance:
$410M
IBSRELA Revenue
$410 million to $430 million projected
$110M
XPHOZAH Revenue
$110 million to $120 million projected
$550M+
Total Revenue
Over $550 million expected THIS YEAR
With a market cap under $2 billion, ARDX is trading at roughly 4x sales while growing revenues by double digits.
For an emerging biotech with drugs just coming to market, the valuation should be closer to 10x.
That would put the market cap potential closer to $5 billion – 2.5x the current level.

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The Chairman Is Buying… Aggressively
No wonder the company's chairman has been buying shares for the past two years.
Look at this insider activity…
ARDX Insider Buying: Chairman David M. Mott – 6 Months of Purchases
Chairman David Mott has purchased nearly 1.6 million shares over the past 6 months alone, investing approximately $7.7 million of his own money at prices ranging from $3.66 to $5 per share.
When the chairman is buying this aggressively, it tells you something.
As for ARDX's potential as a buyout candidate, big pharma has been known to pay up for companies with no revenue – and ARDX has over half a billion coming in this year.
ARDX should be in your portfolio today.

RECOMMENDATION: Use LIMIT ORDERS to add Ardelyx Pharmaceuticals (ARDX) to your portfolio in TWO tranches.
The first should be under $7.90 and the second at lower levels. I will alert you when to add the second portion.


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Quick Update: Nike (NKE)
By Bryan Bottarelli
As you know, I've already revealed one of my top value picks for 2026: Nike (NKE).
The World Cup is coming in 2026, which could offer a boost to Nike. Nike and Adidas provide gear for over 70% of World Cup teams, contributing to global sales headed into the games.
After an earnings disappointment (primarily from weakness in China despite a top-line beat), it was noteworthy to see Nike President and CEO Elliott Hill step in and buy over 16,000 shares around $61.10 per share.
Nike ended 2025 down 19% and dropped 11% on December 18 earnings.
Is this insider buy an indication that the bottom is in? It sure feels that way.

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Anna Leigh Waters - No. 1 Female Pickleball Player, Now Signed to Nike
Nike just signed Anna Leigh Waters, the No. 1 female pickleball player in the world, to a new licensing and merchandise contract.
Pickleball is the fastest-growing sport in America – and Waters is only 18 years old.
Nike locked her up with a long-term contract. It's a genius move that could pay off for years.
Action to Take: If you haven't taken a position in NKE yet, consider doing so now. If you're a new subscriber, buy at market.

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Final Intel
The biotech rotation is happening whether you're positioned or not. With $236 billion in pharma revenue expiring by 2030 and M&A deals already exploding 73% to $228 billion, the feeding frenzy is just getting started.
Our recommendations: IBB for broad sector exposure, LABU for leveraged speculation, and ARDX as our deep-value M&A target.
These aren't long-term holds – they're tactical positions for the rotation that's already underway.
Remember – join us every Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET for our Weekly Intelligence Briefing where we'll update you on biotech developments and any position adjustments.
The patent cliff waits for no one. Position accordingly.
To your success,
Bryan Bottarelli & Karim Rahemtulla
Co-Founders, Monument Traders Alliance

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